baxter-king_etal_2025

Endorsements vs. information: Experimental evidence of backlash and parallel persuasion during the COVID-19 public health crisis

Baxter-King, Ryan, Alexander Coppock, Graham Straus, and Lynn Vavreck. 2025. PNAS Nexus 4(6): 1–11. doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf185

Governments try to promote prosocial behaviors like gun safety, environmental protection, opioid awareness, and during COVID-19 pandemic, behaviors like social distancing, masking, and vaccination. Democratic governments generally cannot force these behaviors on citizens; instead, they must persuade. Persuasive appeals mainly fall into three categories: endorsements (cues from leaders, experts, or celebrities), guidance and mandates (policies or practices issued by government), and information (the provision of facts and arguments about benefits). Using data from 10 experiments with 85,191 survey respondents conducted over a 2-year period during the COVID-19 pandemic, we assess the effectiveness of these three types of persuasive messages. We find that endorsements are variously polarizing depending on subjects’ partisan orientation toward the endorser, counterproductive in general, or wholly ineffective. We find that guidance and information treatments—when they are effective at all—move people ``in parallel,’’ i.e., in the direction of information by similar amounts regardless of party affiliation.

baxter-king_etal_2025
Fig. 5 from paper: Effects of information about contagiousness on intentions to get booster shot (October 2022, experiment I-3) Plotting symbols on the right side panel represent the conditional average treatment effects within each row. Circles show the effects without covariates. Triangles represent the estimates from a model with covariates as discussed earlier. Lines on the left-side panel represent the average effects overall (black topmost line) and for each level of partisanship (red for Republicans towards the top and blue for Democrats towards the bottom). Shades of the lines increase with increasing partisan intensity.