coppock_etal_2026

What Do We Learn From a Decade of Candidate Choice Conjoint Experiments?

Coppock, Alexander, Matthew Blyth, Marco M. Aviña, and Semra Sevi. 2026. Working paper.

Candidate choice conjoint experiments are now among the most widely deployed designs in political science, but their lessons are scattered across hundreds of separate investigations. We present a meta-reanalysis of 243 such studies (reported in 144 papers) conducted in 52 countries among 434,079 respondents who chose between hypothetical candidates in 2,176,525 pairs. Political attributes like policy positions and partisanship exert substantially larger effects than demographic attributes such as race, gender, age, and religion, a result that informs enduring theoretical debates over substantive and descriptive representation. The effects of most attributes shrink when policy information is displayed alongside them. In US studies, respondents generally favor co-partisans over demographically similar candidates. When party and policy conflict, however, policy wins: partisans typically favor the out-partisan who shares their policy views over the co-partisan who does not.

coppock_etal_2026
Figure 4 from paper: Meta-analytic estimates of win rates by matchup. Note: Each row shows the distribution of study-level AFCP estimates for one matchup type across all countries. The shaded curve at left is the fitted normal distribution from the random effects model, labeled with its mean μ̂ and between-study SD τ̂ on the AFCP percentage scale; the point and interval show μ̂ with its 95% confidence interval. The dashed vertical line marks 50%, the point of indifference between the two candidates. Gold: matchups from studies that include explicit policy information. Blue: matchups from studies without. k at the right of each row is the number of contributing study-level estimates, which exceeds the number of studies wherever a study randomizes whether policy information is shown and so contributes an estimate in each condition. Complete numerical results for every point plotted here are in Appendix Table Q.20.